Xi's Gain Is Prince Mohammed's Pain: Oil Rout Winners And Losers


Exporter1.19 million barrels/day

Crude’s collapse exacerbates an already dramatic fiscal situation for the Caribbean nation, which relies on crude shipments for 95 percent of its export revenue. Venezuela is already behind on almost $7 billion owed to investors and is handing over barrels as payment for legal settlements and outstanding loans. Less revenue will squeeze the few remaining social welfare programs left, exacerbate the scarcity of goods and services, and potentially fuel opposition to President Nicolas Maduro, whose years of mismanagement have made electricity and running water a luxury.


Importer0.5 million barrels/day

The collapse in oil prices is a much-needed boost for President Erdogan’s efforts to heal Turkey’s economy, which is stumbling from a plunge in the lira that’s led to soaring inflation and a sharp slowdown in growth. While it borders some of the world’s most plentiful oil fields, Turkey imports nearly 90 percent of its oil, making energy a primary contributor to its current-account deficit. But the degree of benefit from lower prices will depend on the performance of the lira. A previous oil slump in 2015 coincided with a steep depreciation of the currency, limiting the positive impact on inflation, the current account and tax revenues.


Exporter1.15 million barrels/day

The dip should be manageable for western Europe’s biggest oil producer, since its budget already assumed an oil price of below $70 for next year. If squeezed, the government could always tap into its wealth fund, like it did in 2016 and 2017 as the war chest swelled past a massive $1 trillion. Still, the drop could have some political implications. Norway expects to get about 17 percent of its budget next year from oil, and reduced income will likely increase resistance to spending demands in the current budget talks, where Christian Democrats have been arguing for more generous state support for families.


Importer4.40 million barrels/day

The fall in oil prices comes just in time for Prime Minister Modi, who heads into a long election season with a federal poll due by May. India is the world’s third-biggest oil consumer and meets more than 80 percent of its needs through imports, much of it from Iran. The world’s second most populous country was one of eight to receive a waiver from U.S. sanctions on Iran, and following a meeting between Modi and U.S. Vice President Mike Pence in Singapore this week, Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale said India would import more energy from the U.S. The fall in crude will also help buffer government finances, temper inflation pressures and could bring some respite to the rupee, which has led declines in Asia this year, dropping more than 11 percent against the dollar.


Importer0.32 million barrels/day

Energy prices are a contentious issue in Indonesia, where authorities have raised taxes on consumer goods to reduce the current-account deficit, but left costly subsidies for fuel in place. President Joko Widodo, who’s running for re-election in April, last month ordered a reversal of a 6.9 percent increase in the price of a widely used gasoline just hours after it was announced. Nomura listed Indonesia among the winners from cheaper oil, as Widodo pitches his vision of transforming the nation of 262 million into a manufacturing powerhouse.


Exporter1.90 million barrels/day

Oil is Nigeria’s biggest foreign-exchange earner and the price drop will pile pressure on a budget already stretched by 66 percent increase in the minimum wage. It’s also bad timing for President Muhammadu Buhari, a 75-year-old former general whose opponents before next year’s elections already accuse him of mismanaging the economy. While Nigeria is Africa’s biggest crude producer, it imports more than 90 percent of its fuel because its own refineries are dilapidated. So a drop in oil income tends to make things harder for Nigerians, eroding the trade surplus and putting pressure on the naira. Some analysts say that could hasten the central bank’s tightening cycle, impeding growth in an economy still recovering from a 2016 contraction.

South Africa

Importer0.43 million barrels/day

The collapse in oil prices is good news for the South African Reserve Bank, giving it room to hold off on raising interest rates this month and provide some support to an economy that plunged to a recession in the second quarter. That’s assuming the rand doesn’t weaken too much, though. The central bank forecasts inflation well above 5 percent next year and has made it clear it will tighten policy to steer it back to the 4.5 percent mid-point of its target range. But those projections assumed oil at an average of $70 a barrel. If lower prices allow it to delay the tightening cycle, that could support a recovery and prop up household spending. It may even reverse part of the past year’s 20 percent surge in gasoline prices, which further eroded consumers’ spending power.


Exporter1.30 million barrels/day

Angola is even more dependent on oil than most other producers. Half of its gross domestic product and 90 percent of its exports are from oil production and related activities. So the crude price-drop will be a major drag on its $120 billion economy, which the IMF forecasts will contract for a third consecutive year in 2018.


Importer0.31 million barrels/day

Lower oil prices are a net positive for Latin America’s largest economy, and could save the country billions of reais, will reduce the cost of a diesel subsidy and potentially eliminate the need to renew it beyond December. The biggest winner is President-Elect Jair Bolsonaro, who’ll take office on Jan. 1 buoyed by a feel-good factor among consumers who’ve been pummeled by the worst recession on record. High fuel prices helped trigger a nationwide truck strike earlier this year that hurt the economy. Now Bolsonaro could be spared from having to choose between a costly subsidy or an unpopular price hike.


Net exporter2.24 million barrels/day

As low as global benchmark prices are, they’re even lower in Canada -- the country’s crude has been selling at or near a record discount to U.S. prices, amid a supply glut and a pipeline shortage. Justin Trudeau’s government has already bought a beleaguered pipeline expansion project in a bid to see it built, but the country has grappled for years with legal challenges and regulatory failures that block efforts to build new conduits. For now, it’s stuck with rising production, a single customer and a shortage of shipping options.


Net importer6.38 million barrels/day

Oil’s slide is more of a mixed blessing than great for America’s economy. Crude in the U.S. dipped below $55 a barrel this week for the first time in a year amid rising global supply and concerns about slowing demand. While the U.S. is still a net importer of oil, its trade deficit in petroleum products is about a third of the level just four years ago. The U.S. is now the world’s top producer -- which means the decline has both positive and negative effects. Broadly, lower oil prices help contain inflation and spur consumption, the biggest part of the economy, while curbing costs for businesses. But they’re a risk for U.S. producers: the energy-industry rebound and corporate tax cuts have powered a surge in capital investment that’s been driving economic growth until recently. So it’s no wonder Trump in a tweet on Monday admonished Saudi Arabia for considering cutting its crude output to shore up prices.

--With assistance from Ruth Pollard, Raymond Colitt, Gregory L. White, Josh Wingrove, Jonas Bergman, Michelle Jamrisko, Dan Murtaugh, Pratish Narayanan, Vivian Nereim, Cagan Koc, Lin Noueihed and Julian Lee.

To contact the reporters on this story: Enda Curran in Hong Kong at ecurran8@bloomberg.net;Alan Crawford in Berlin at acrawford6@bloomberg.net;Rene Vollgraaff in Johannesburg at rvollgraaff@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Rosalind Mathieson at rmathieson3@bloomberg.net, ;Simon Kennedy at skennedy4@bloomberg.net, Brendan Murray, Benjamin Harvey

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©2018 Bloomberg L.P.

Source : https://ca.news.yahoo.com/xi-apos-gain-prince-mohammed-105834269.html

Xi's Gain Is Prince Mohammed's Pain: Oil Rout Winners and Losers
The electorate doesn't have buyer's remorse. Yet.
Xi's Gain Is Prince Mohammed's Pain: Oil Rout Winners and Losers